Agricultural Risk Mapping & Digital Twin

The Center is developing a concept for a data-driven agricultural risk-mapping and digital-twin capability that could identify critical dependencies, vulnerabilities, geographic concentrations, and potential cascading effects across the U.S. agricultural system. 

The initial concept uses Yuma County, Arizona, as a potential testbed, creating a detailed model of a strategically important agricultural region and demonstrating the approach at a manageable scale. From there, the methodology could be applied to additional regions, commodities, inputs, and agricultural subsectors, with the long-term goal of building an increasingly integrated picture of vulnerabilities across U.S. agriculture and its supporting supply chains. 

Beyond identifying risks, the capability could provide a stronger empirical foundation for the Center's scenario development and tabletop exercises—allowing future exercises to test disruptions and cascading consequences against real-world agricultural data rather than relying solely on hypothetical assumptions. This is a long-term research concept. 

The Center is seeking partners interested in developing and testing the approach, including potential support for an initial Yuma demonstration.