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Who will feed the world in 2035? AI research offers clues
New peer-reviewed research from ASU’s Deniz Berfin Karakoc, assistant professor of industrial engineering in the School of Computing and Augmented Intelligence, shows that agricultural power depends not only on production, but also on the infrastructure, institutions and trade networks that move food around the world. Using artificial intelligence and more than three decades of global trade data, the study forecasts which countries could emerge as leading food exporters through 2035 and offers insight into the factors shaping the future of global food security.
New ASU center to help protect America’s agriculture industry from foreign threats
ASU launches the Center for Agriculture and National Security to address emerging threats to U.S. food and agriculture systems. The center examines how geopolitical competition, supply-chain disruptions, cyber threats, intellectual property theft, water scarcity and other vulnerabilities can undermine national security and resilience.
Led by Alicia Ellis, the center brings together expertise across agriculture, national security, supply chains, cybersecurity, economics, and systems engineering, while partnering with government, industry, and academic organizations on research, education and tabletop exercises.
News Items Podcast: Episode 16 feat. Russ Howard
John Ellis talks with retired Brigadier General Russ Howard about the wars in Iran and Ukraine, why modern warfare is changing faster than most militaries can adapt, and a much bigger problem that could be coming down the road. Howard argues that food, fertilizer, water, and supply chains are becoming national security issues in their own right. They discuss the real-world effects of conflict on agriculture, growing concerns over global water shortages, and a project at Arizona State University that asks what the world might look like in 2040 if current trends continue. A conversation about the risks that sit just beneath the headlines.
Publications
Who will feed the world in 2035? AI research offers clues
New peer-reviewed research from ASU’s Deniz Berfin Karakoc, assistant professor of industrial engineering in the School of Computing and Augmented Intelligence, shows that agricultural power depends not only on production, but also on the infrastructure, institutions and trade networks that move food around the world. Using artificial intelligence and more than three decades of global trade data, the study forecasts which countries could emerge as leading food exporters through 2035 and offers insight into the factors shaping the future of global food security.
Agriculture as a Domain of Hybrid Warfare: China’s Strategy and U.S. Security Gaps
Dr. Alicia Ellis and Sarah Shoer published “Agriculture as a Domain of Hybrid Warfare: China’s Strategy and U.S. Security Gaps” in PRISM: The Journal of Complex Operations. They argue that agriculture should be treated as critical infrastructure, given that it has been a deliberate target and instrument of hybrid warfare. They document how the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is building upstream leverage through fertilizer dominance, ag‑tech acquisitions, land purchases, and control of key logistics nodes, creating potential chokepoints in U.S. and global food systems. The article introduces an Agriculture Security (“AgSec”) framework that aims to protect “farm-to-fork infrastructure” from disruption, manipulation, or exploitation by adversaries and integrates agriculture into hybrid deterrence planning on par with other forms of critical infrastructure.
From Hormuz to Harvest: The Strategic Clock of Modern Agriculture
Rising tensions in the Persian Gulf are beginning to ripple through global fertilizer markets just as shipments normally move toward farms ahead of the spring planting season. Because fertilizer deliveries are tightly synchronized with agricultural production cycles, disruptions during this window can shape harvest outcomes months before crops are even planted. If current instability continues to tighten fertilizer markets, the effects could reach the upcoming growing season sooner than policymakers or planners anticipate.
Interviews
News Items Podcast: Episode 16 feat. Russ Howard
John Ellis talks with retired Brigadier General Russ Howard about the wars in Iran and Ukraine, why modern warfare is changing faster than most militaries can adapt, and a much bigger problem that could be coming down the road. Howard argues that food, fertilizer, water, and supply chains are becoming national security issues in their own right. They discuss the real-world effects of conflict on agriculture, growing concerns over global water shortages, and a project at Arizona State University that asks what the world might look like in 2040 if current trends continue. A conversation about the risks that sit just beneath the headlines.
Al Jazeera Interview on Fertilizer, Timing, and Risk
Dr. Alicia Ellis joined Al Jazeera (March 26, 2026) to discuss how global disruptions from the war in Iran are impacting U.S. farmers in real time. She highlighted how rising fertilizer costs, tightening planting windows, and early-season decisions, particularly in the Midwest, are already shaping food production months before effects reach markets.
Veterans, Agriculture, and National Security
Dr. Alicia Ellis joined the Vets in Ag podcast to discuss how agriculture and food systems underpin national security, military readiness, and resilience—and why veterans play a key role in strengthening them.