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Agriculture as a Domain of Hybrid Warfare: China’s Strategy and U.S. Security Gaps
Dr. Alicia Ellis and Sarah Shoer published “Agriculture as a Domain of Hybrid Warfare: China’s Strategy and U.S. Security Gaps” in PRISM: The Journal of Complex Operations. They argue that agriculture should be treated as critical infrastructure, given that it has been a deliberate target and instrument of hybrid warfare. They document how the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is building upstream leverage through fertilizer dominance, ag‑tech acquisitions, land purchases, and control of key logistics nodes, creating potential chokepoints in U.S. and global food systems. The article introduces an Agriculture Security (“AgSec”) framework that aims to protect “farm-to-fork infrastructure” from disruption, manipulation, or exploitation by adversaries and integrates agriculture into hybrid deterrence planning on par with other forms of critical infrastructure.
Al Jazeera Interview on Fertilizer, Timing, and Risk
Dr. Alicia Ellis joined Al Jazeera (March 26, 2026) to discuss how global disruptions from the war in Iran are impacting U.S. farmers in real time. She highlighted how rising fertilizer costs, tightening planting windows, and early-season decisions, particularly in the Midwest, are already shaping food production months before effects reach markets.
ASU highlights growing role in defense research, education
Dr. Alicia Ellis served as a panelist at ASU’s Office for Veteran and Military Academic Engagement annual event, "Research to Readiness: Showcasing ASU Expertise in Partnership with the DoD," where she discussed her work on agriculture as an emerging national security concern.
“One trend that we’re really starting to see in national security and defense planning is this growing recognition that economic systems and critical supply chains can become targets in strategic competition,” said Ellis, who is also a former Air Force officer. “The primary goal of this research is to examine how agricultural food systems function as a strategic infrastructure and how they can become targets or pressure points in modern geopolitical competition.”
Publications
Agriculture as a Domain of Hybrid Warfare: China’s Strategy and U.S. Security Gaps
Dr. Alicia Ellis and Sarah Shoer published “Agriculture as a Domain of Hybrid Warfare: China’s Strategy and U.S. Security Gaps” in PRISM: The Journal of Complex Operations. They argue that agriculture should be treated as critical infrastructure, given that it has been a deliberate target and instrument of hybrid warfare. They document how the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is building upstream leverage through fertilizer dominance, ag‑tech acquisitions, land purchases, and control of key logistics nodes, creating potential chokepoints in U.S. and global food systems. The article introduces an Agriculture Security (“AgSec”) framework that aims to protect “farm-to-fork infrastructure” from disruption, manipulation, or exploitation by adversaries and integrates agriculture into hybrid deterrence planning on par with other forms of critical infrastructure.
From Hormuz to Harvest: The Strategic Clock of Modern Agriculture
Rising tensions in the Persian Gulf are beginning to ripple through global fertilizer markets just as shipments normally move toward farms ahead of the spring planting season. Because fertilizer deliveries are tightly synchronized with agricultural production cycles, disruptions during this window can shape harvest outcomes months before crops are even planted. If current instability continues to tighten fertilizer markets, the effects could reach the upcoming growing season sooner than policymakers or planners anticipate.
Cyber to Soil: How America’s Food System Became a Battlespace
The U.S. food system is a marvel of modern logistics, productivity, and innovation. However, its very efficiency, anchored in just-in-time delivery, concentrated infrastructure, and foreign input reliance, has also made it profoundly fragile. Once seen as just an economic domain, agriculture now sits at the intersection of multiple threat vectors: cyber, bio, economic, and geopolitical.
Interviews
Al Jazeera Interview on Fertilizer, Timing, and Risk
Dr. Alicia Ellis joined Al Jazeera (March 26, 2026) to discuss how global disruptions from the war in Iran are impacting U.S. farmers in real time. She highlighted how rising fertilizer costs, tightening planting windows, and early-season decisions, particularly in the Midwest, are already shaping food production months before effects reach markets.
Veterans, Agriculture, and National Security
Dr. Alicia Ellis joined the Vets in Ag podcast to discuss how agriculture and food systems underpin national security, military readiness, and resilience—and why veterans play a key role in strengthening them.
Al Jazeera Interview on Fertilizer Supply Chains, the Strait of Hormuz, and Risks to Agricultural Security
Dr. Alicia Ellis talks with Al Jazeera (March 11, 2026) about fertilizer supply chains, planting season timing, and why disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz matter for agricultural security.